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NASHVILLE (WSMV) – A new study from the University of Tennessee shows the population boom for the Midstate is expected to continue, with over half a million people moving to the Metro in the next 20 years.

The study was conducted by the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at UT Knoxville. In the study, it showed the state’s population growing by nearly one million people in the next 20 years. The highest concentration of that growth will be centered on Nashville and surrounding counties.

Davidson, Montgomery, Williamson, Rutherford, Sumner, and Wilson Counties are expected to grow by nearly 600,000 people over the next 20 years with the highest concentration moving to Williamson, Rutherford, Davidson, and Montgomery Counties.

Davidson County is projected to grow by 100,000 people by 2040 and an additional 50,000 by 2050. Rutherford County is expected to overtake Chattanooga’s Hamilton County as the state’s fourth-largest county by 2040 and expected to overtake Knoxville’s Knox County by 2050 as the third-largest county in the state.


Area 2020 Population 2040 Population Difference 
Davidson County (Nashville)705,400804,48899,088
Montgomery County (Clarksville)214,627301,78587,158
Rutherford County (Murfreesboro)341,000505,396164,396
Sumner County (Hendersonville)193,462250,45056,988
Williamson County (Franklin)244,052361,562117,510
Wilson County (Lebanon)147,012205,29358,281
Hamilton County (Chattanooga)369,802414,98745,185
Shelby County (Memphis)940,109975,42035,311

In addition to the population increase, the state of Tennessee is expected to see a boom in the Hispanic population, growing by well over half a million people over the next 30 years. The boom will be particularly large in Davidson County, growing by nearly 100,000 people in the next 30 years. Conversely, white non-Hispanic people will decline in all Tennessee counties by 2070 by over 50 percent.

The population will also be skewing older, with a large uptick in those 50 and older approaching the year 2070.

The total number of people living in the Metro area will grow as well, from nearly 2 million in 2020 to nearly 3 million by the year 2050. This is less than Chattanooga, Johnson City, Jackson, and Memphis who all have smaller populations living in their Metro areas and have lower rates of growth.

To view the data for where you live, click here to go to the report.

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Copyright 2019 WSMV (Meredith Corporation). All rights reserved.

WSMV Digital Content Producer

Joey is an award-winning Digital Content Producer who joined WSMV in September 2018.

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