RALEIGH: Hagan, Tillis tied in senate race, new data shows - WSMV Channel 4

Hagan, Tillis tied in Senate race, new data shows

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Sen. Kay Hagain (D) and House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) Sen. Kay Hagain (D) and House Speaker Thom Tillis (R)

As Sen. Kay Hagan and House Speaker Thom Tillis prepare to debate Wednesday night, new data shows the race is tight.

According to the latest American Insights chart, Hagan, a Democrat, and Tillis, a Republican, are tied at 42 percent, the same margin American Insights saw on Aug. 8.

"On the eve of the first Tillis-Hagan debate, our analysis shows that North Carolina's Senate race is still locked in a dead heat and holds the key to control of the U.S. Senate," American Insights Director Pearce Godwinsaid in a written release. 

"But the neck-and-neck polling may be misleading at this later stage of the race. The actual level of the incumbent's support, more than the margin between the candidates, can serve as an important indicator of how this race could play out, and that's not good news for Sen. Hagan at 42 percent."

A poll by Raleigh's Public Policy Polling Aug. 19 put Hagan at 42 percent and Tillis at 38 percent.

The North Carolina race is particularly important this year, with the two contenders so close and control of the Senate so uncertain. There are 32 Democrats and 30 Republicans who are not up for election. Also, two independents who caucus with the Democrats are not up for election, meaning the Democrats have 34 secure seats and the Republicans 30.

However, a New York Times analysis on Sept. 2 predicts 10 of the seats up for election are likely to be won by Democrats and 17 are likely to be won by Republicans. The remaining nine seats are competitive, including the race in North Carolina. If the Republicans win in Louisiana, Arkansas and Georgia, as The Times expects, then a Tillis victory would give Republicans a majority in the Senate.

You can watch Wednesday's debate on WNCN at 7 p.m. The debate also will livestream on WNCN.com

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